Review article: Towards improved drought prediction in the Mediterranean region – modeling approaches and future directions

Abstract

There is a scientific consensus that the Mediterranean region (MedR) is warming and as the temperature continues to rise, droughts and heat waves are becoming more frequent, severe, and widespread. Given the detrimental effects of droughts, it is crucial to accelerate the development of forecasting and early warning systems to minimize their negative impact. This paper reviews the current state of drought modeling and prediction applied in the MedR, including statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models. By considering the multifaceted nature of droughts, the study encompasses meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought forms and spans a variety of forecast scales, from weekly to annual timelines. Our objective is to pinpoint the knowledge gaps in literature and to propose potential research trajectories to improve the prediction of droughts in this region. The review finds that while each method has its unique strengths and limitations, hybrid statistical–dynamical models appear to hold the most promising potential for skillful prediction with seasonal to annual lead times. However, the application of these methods is still challenging due to the lack of high-quality observational data and the limited computational resources. Finally, the paper concludes by discussing the importance of using a combination of sophisticated methods such as data assimilation techniques, machine learning models, and copula models and of integrating data from different sources (e.g., remote sensing data, in situ measurements, and reanalysis) to improve the accuracy and efficiency of drought forecasting.