Assessing the impact of climate change on the distribution of endemic subalpine and alpine plants of New Guinea

Abstract

Plant species of alpine and subalpine ecosystems in tropical mountains are prone to habitat loss due to future climate change. In the present study, the impact of climate change on the distribution of five endemic plant species of subalpine and alpine regions in New Guinea is assessed using Maxent. Models developed for all species had an AUC > 0.9, TSS > 0.7 and sensitivity, specificity and overall accuracy better than 0.8, indicating high model performance. Current suitable habitats of the species were predicted to occur mainly along the mountain ranges in the middle of the New Guinea Island, with elevation and extreme temperature related variables being the most influential factors. Future predictions for these species showed significant loss of suitable habitats, especially in Papua New Guinea. These results may serve as a basis for planning the conservation actions needed to conserve the species, especially in addressing potential future climate change.

Keywords

• alpine
• climate change
• endemic plants
• New Guinea
• Subalpine