The Impact of COVID-19 on the Connectedness of Stock Index in ASEAN+3 Economies

Abstract

This paper explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the connectedness of stock indexes in the group of developed and emerging economies known as the ASEAN+3. We derived our empirical findings from the Diebold and Yilmaz (DY12) and Baruník and Křehlík (BK18) spillover methods, using daily data from 10 May 2005 to 24 February 2021. We show that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a bigger impact on the return and volatilities of ASEAN+3 stock markets than previous economic turmoil, such as the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2009–2012 European debt crisis. Using a frequency domain methodology, we find evidence that return spillovers mostly occur in the short-term, while volatility connectedness is more pronounced in the long-term. The Singapore stock market primarily acts the as top transmitter in returns and volatilities, whereas Vietnam has become the top receiver of shocks in returns. We also demonstrate that it is possible to replicate the frequency-domain connectedness measures of BK18 with a DY12 methodology. Using a series decomposed with a wavelet-based approach, we find that the total spillover indices for short-, medium-, and long-term frequencies computed with the DY12 approach are comparable to the within connectedness indices of BK18. Our results have important policy implications for investors, regulators, and policy makers.

Keywords

• stock index return
• volatilities
• connectedness
• COVID-19
• ASEAN+3