OIL EXPORT FLUCTUATIONS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Abstract

International trade theory argues that developing countries benefit from primary specialization because of the existence of comparative advantages and the utilization of the countries relative abundant factors. But at the same time, international specialization implies a high commodity dependency which were criticized by some development economists. It is believed that international specialization of commodity implies a high economic dependency to export earnings. However, since export commodity prices were not predictable then high instability in prices caused export earnings instability. Prices or earnings variability induce macroeconomic fluctuations mainly defined as the national income instability. This article analyzes the relationship between oil export earnings instability and economic growth in IRAN. With regards to instability concept, macroeconomic consequences can be avoided and this problem can also be transmitted to other economic sectors.This article follows Feder's(1982) growth model and uses Johansen's (1988) cointegration system approach to analyze the effects of export earnings instability.Results show that export earnings instability does not affect the gross domestic product(GDP) in the long run, but it does effect it in the short run.

Keywords

• export earnings instability
• economic growth
• cointegartion system
• vector error correction model