Improvement оf the methodology of estimation of efficiency of targeted state and municipal programs

Abstract

The transformation of program-target management into a basic approach in the formation of budgets at all levels of territorial management in the Russian Federation makes the task of evaluating the effectiveness of target programs urgent. In the Russian practice, such assessment is mainly based on the degree of achievement of the expected results of the program and compliance with budgetary expenditures for the implementation of the program activities. At the same time, a review of modern theoretical and methodological approaches to the evaluation of target programs that have evolved in domestic and foreign practice has shown that, despite being informative, these types of assessments do not allow to evaluate the effectiveness of the implementation of target programs, to determine the contribution of programs to the economic and social progress of the municipality, the region, the country as a whole. In this connection, the study substantiates the need to improve the methodology of program evaluation by supplementing the "internal" analysis of target programs with an "external" assessment of their impact on the achievement of target indicators of territorial social and economic development for the period of budget planning. Methodologically the research is based on a complex of methods of logical, systemic, comparative and statistical analysis. The scientific novelty of the methodology proposed by the authors for evaluating the effectiveness of targeted programs is as follows. First, as part of the program evaluation indicators, it was suggested to use a set of indicators reflecting the degree of attractiveness of the territory as a place suitable for living and working. Secondly, a system of dynamic standards has been developed that reflect the reference trajectory of changes in the indicators of the socio-economic development of the territory. Thirdly, in the evaluation of target programs, it has been justified to take into account the deviations of actual indicators of the social and economic development of the territory from dynamic standards. The Spearman rank correlation coefficient has been suggested to be taken as a tool for analyzing deviations. Fourthly, the possible application of the approach of using “external” assessment of the program impact on the social and economic development of systems characterized by different level of hierarchy (countries, regions, cities and towns) suggested by the authors has been proven. Proposals of authors on the use of "external" evaluation of programs have been tested on the example of state programs of the Russian Federation, Perm Krai and municipal programs of the city of Perm for 2015‒2017. Further directions of the research include clarification of the indicators of the "external" evaluation of target programs and the mechanism of their influence on the development of the corresponding territorial system.