Anti-Fragility and Epidemics [In Bulgarian]

Abstract

This article discusses the risks of epidemics in the context of their very fat-tailed distribution, discovered by Nassim Taleb and Pasquale Cirillo. We dis-cuss the nature of complex systems, fat-tailed distributions and convexity of payoff to analyze the risk of epidemic by using data from Covid-19 up to 23rd of May 2020. We discuss findings about previous historic examples of pan-demics like the Justinian plague and their long-term cultural impact in order to understand the possible cultural changes after uncontrolled pandemic in the global world. We analyze the socio-economic impact of the numbers of deaths vs the measures taken against the virus and argue that losses are convex func-tion of the deaths irrespective of measures. We warn about cumulative post-epidemic impact on health care systems and the self-accelerating effects of further pandemics with zoonotic origin.

Keywords

• risks
• risk management
• history
• probability
• pandemics
• complex systems
• covid-19