Tolerance and Intolerance for Uncertainty as Predictors of Decision Making and Risk Acceptance in Gaming Strategies of Te Iowa Gambling Task

Abstract

Background. Tis article reports on the results of an empirical study of interrelationships between indicators of decision-making strategies (indexed by the Iowa Gambling Task, IGT) and traits of tolerance and intolerance for uncertainty that capture the unity of cognitive and personality components of situational representations. Objective. Our study tested the hypothesis that overcoming uncertainty in decision making goes beyond cognitive representations of the task but instead is rooted in the construction of the amodal image of an uncertain situation that captures the meaning regulation of perception and action. We hypothesized that when a person is faced with multi-stage decisions, their strategies refect the contribution of individual diferences in attitudes towards uncertainty. Design. Using data obtained from n=60 typically developing adults (68% men; Mage=30.58), we examined the contribution of tolerance/intolerance for uncertainty to a variety of IGT dependent variables at fve diferent stages of the game. Results. Te data was analyzed using the mixed linear model method as implemented in the lme4 package for R. Te results indicated that tolerance for uncertainty signifcantly contributes to the initial level of behavioral risk, ensuring readiness for decision making under uncertainty. Conclusion. Tolerance for uncertainty plays an important role in early stages of orientation in an uncertain modeled game situation, and contributes to the productive development of probabilistic expectations. Intolerance for uncertainty, on the other hand, was shown to contribute to risk in decision making afer trial failure, potentially limiting learning in uncertain conditions through risk aversion.

Keywords

• decision making
• Iowa Gambling Task (IGT)
• tolerance for uncertainty
• tolerance for ambiguity
• intolerance for uncertainty
• risk acceptance