Sea ice choke points reduce the length of the shipping season in the Northwest Passage

Abstract

Abstract Arctic sea ice has shifted from a perennial (older, thicker ice) to a seasonal (younger, thinner) ice regime, leading to the increasingly common belief that shipping through Canada’s Northwest Passage is becoming more viable. Here, we use the Risk Index Outcome values derived from the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System and analyze recent changes to shipping season lengths along individual sections of the Northwest Passage routes from 2007 to 2021. Results show that multi-year ice flushed southward from high-latitude regions maintains the so-called choke points along certain route sections, reducing overall shipping season length. There is considerable spatiotemporal variability in shipping season lengths along the southern and northern routes. Specifically, parts of the northern route exhibit a decrease of up to 14 weeks over the 15 years. The variability of shipping season and, in particular, the shortening of the season will impact not only international shipping but also resupply and the cost of food in many Arctic communities, which require a prompt policy response.