Predictors of severe dengue amongst children as per the revised WHO classification

Abstract

Background & objectives: World Health Organization (WHO) revised its guidelines for classification and management of dengue in 2009. This revised system was found out to have good sensitivity and negative predictive value but poor specificity as well as positive predictive value. Methods: This retrospective study was carried out in a tertiary care hospital of Delhi, India to assess factors predicting the occurrence of severe dengue in children as per the revised classification. A total of 647 suspected dengue cases were admitted in the hospital in the year 2015. Detailed clinical and epidemiological data of 170 patients who were confirmed as dengue either by NS1 antigen test or by serology (Ig M positive) were recorded and statistically analyzed. Results: The number of laboratory-confirmed cases was 170 and included thirty (17.65%) dengue fever (DF), 106 (62.35%) dengue with warning signs (DWS) and 34 (20.0%) severe dengue (SD) patients. Regression analysis revealed that presence of vomiting, altered sensorium, shock, peri-orbital edema, hepatomegaly, splenomegaly, severe anemia, thrombocytopenia, elevated urea and creatinine, decreased total protein and globulin were significantly associated with occurrence of severe disease. Interpretation & conclusion: The addition of clinical features (peri-orbital edema and splenomegaly); and laboratory findings (elevated urea and creatinine, decreased serum protein and globulin) might help improve the sensitivity and specificity of the revised WHO dengue classification in predicting severe dengue.

Keywords

• children; dengue; predictors; severe; who 2009