Learning About Sea Level Rise Uncertainty Improves Coastal Adaptation Decisions

Abstract

Abstract Adaptive decision‐making allows decision‐makers to plan long‐term coastal infrastructure under uncertain sea level rise projections. To date, economic assessments of adaptive decision‐making that take into account future learning about sea level rise uncertainty are rare and the existing ones have relied on simple quantification of future learning not validated against sea level science. To address this gap, we develop an economic adaptive decision‐making framework that takes into account future learning about sea level rise uncertainty and apply it to a coastal case study in Lübeck, Germany, to answer the question of how adaptation to sea level rise can be improved through adaptive adaptation pathways as opposed to non‐adaptive pathways. To address this question, we use a Markov decision process to formulate the stochastic optimization problem. We quantify future learning about sea level rise uncertainty through sea level rise learning scenarios based on and validated against the latest scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our case study results show that the city of Lübeck is currently under‐protected against storm surges and that immediate adaptation actions are advisable in the face of future sea level rise. We find that adaptive adaptation pathways, in contrast to non‐adaptive pathways, generate sea level rise thresholds for adaptation actions that are similar across climate change scenarios and can reduce expected costs up to 1.8%.

Keywords

• adaptation
• sea level rise
• climate uncertainty
• real‐option analysis
• dynamic planning
• learning scenarios