Analyzing Forecasts of the Influence of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Economy of Ukraine and the Neighboring Countries

Abstract

The article is directed towards analyzing forecasts and scenarios of development of the economy of Ukraine and the neighboring countries on the results of the coronavirus pandemic, as well as examining of the existing approaches of international and special organizations for forecasting and comparative analyzing of forecasts. The forecasts of the International Monetary Fund regarding the impact of pandemic COVID-19 on GDP change and the unemployment rate of Ukraine and the neighboring countries: Russian Federation, Belarus, Romania, Poland, Bulgaria, and Hungary are researched. The World Bank forecasts for these countries are analyzed. Approaches to forecasting the effects of both the coronavirus disease and the quarantine activities of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and development based on the double-strike pandemic scenario together with the one-strike scenario are considered. Also the necessity of development of the third – «mixed» – scenario of the events development for the neighboring countries and countries having trade relations or labor migration of the population is substantiated. The scenario approach in forecasting the consequences of the pandemic, used by the World Trade Organization and Bloomberg agency (including the V-shaped scenario, U-shaped scenario, L-shaped scenario, W-shaped scenario, the «Tick-Shape» scenario) is examined, as well as the scenarios for the development based on the analytics by the Capital Times company and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and agriculture of Ukraine, is considered. A comparative analysis of the forecasts of changes in Ukraine’s GDP under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as volumes of support for anti-crisis measures in Ukraine and the neighboring countries is carried out. The specifics of the economies of neighboring countries are researched, and measures of counteracting the spread of coronavirus disease along with the anti-crisis measures to overcome its consequences are studied. The authors identify and substantiate the factors which provide higher indexes of the macro-economic indices, in particular GDP: balanced distribution of revenues to GDP from different economic activities; high level of internal consumption; developed domestic market; conducting the policy of anti-crisis measures aimed at preserving small, medium business and supporting the basic industries of the economies of the countries.

Keywords

• pandemic
• covid-19
• forecast
• international organizations
• ukraine
• gdp
• scenarios of pandemic exposure