Tropical Cyclone Prediction Using COAMPS-TC

Abstract

A new version of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS®-TC) has been developed for prediction of tropical cyclone track, structure, and intensity. The COAMPS-TC has been tested in real time in both uncoupled and coupled modes over the past several tropical cyclone seasons in the Western Pacific and Atlantic basins at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. An evaluation of a large sample of forecasts in the Atlantic and Western Pacific basins reveals that the COAMPS-TC intensity predictions are competitive with, and in some regards more accurate than, the other leading dynamical models, particularly for lead times beyond 36 hours. Recent real-time forecasts of Hurricane Sandy (2012) highlight the capability of COAMPS-TC to capture both intensity and multiscale structure in agreement with observations. Results from the air-ocean coupled COAMPS-TC simulations of Typhoon Fanapi (2010) and Super Typhoon Jangmi (2008) in the Western Pacific indicate accurate predictions of the track and intensity, as well as the sea surface temperature cooling response to the storm, in agreement with satellite measurements. The air-ocean-wave coupled simulations of the Atlantic Hurricane Frances (2004) highlight the capability of the COAMPS-TC system to realistically capture not only sea surface temperature cooling following storms but also characteristics of ocean surface waves and their interactions with boundary layers above and below the ocean surface.

Keywords

• COAMPS-TC
• tropical cyclone prediction
• cyclone model
• air-ocean-wave simulation
• US Navy ocean model