Operational risk assessment on power system based on weather regionalization considering power ramp of renewable energy generation

Abstract

With the ever-increased installed capacity of renewable energy generation (REG) units, the power ramp of REG has become a common event, introducing an operational risk to the power system. In order to quantify the operational risk, this paper proposes a novel method for assessing the operational risk of power systems with a high proportion of renewable energy, taking into account the power ramp of REG. Firstly, a weather regionalization is proposed to divide the region of the power system into multiple areas, and then the weather data from the weather stations in these areas will be utilized to forecast the power of REG probabilistically. Moreover, an operational risk assessment model based on the cumulative prospect theory is built to reflect the irrational psychological factors of dispatchers, and two typical indices are introduced to show the operational risk of renewable energy curtailment and load curtailment caused by the power ramp of REG. Finally, numerical simulations are conducted in the actual CEPRI-RE power system in the northwest region of China, and the actual weather data from the meteorological agencies is used. The results show that the proposed method is able to assess the operational risk of the power system with a high proportion of renewable energy effectively, and achieve the early warning 30 min in advance. Besides, it can be found that the power system at the turning point between the power ramp and normal operation has a higher operational risk.

Keywords

• Power ramp of renewable energy generation
• Operational risk assessment
• Weather regionalization
• Cumulative prospect theory
• High proportion of renewable energy