DETERMINANTS FOR LIQUID BIOFUELS PRODUCTION IN POLAND AFTER 2006 – MODEL APPROACH

Abstract

Liquid biofuels from agricultural raw materials (mainly cereals and oilseeds) are produced in Poland on an industrial scale since 2005. Poland, implementing guidelines for the energy policy of the European Union, is committed to ensure the share of liquid biofuels in the total fuel consumption in transport in at least 10% by 2020. The development of liquid biofuels market is therefore dependent on the one hand on institutional factors (legal and administrative regulations), and on the other hand, primarily on the situation of agricultural raw materials markets (supply-demand relationships and prices) and macroeconomic factors, mainly crude oil prices. The aim of the paper is empirical identification of determinants for the production of liquid biofuels (bioethanol and biodiesel) in Poland. For this purpose there were built two econometric models based on multiple regression, indicating exactly which factors contribute to the increase or decrease in the production of liquid biofuels. For the bioethanol production importance are mainly sales of bioethanol, the variables concerning the cereals market (prices, purchase and export) and macroeconomic factors – interest rate, GDP growth rate (change) and USD / PLN exchange rate. Important determinants for the biodiesel production include total sale of biodiesel, production of rapeseed oil, import of rapeseed and vegetable oils (rapeseed oil and palm oil) and their prices, as well as crude oil prices, which represent the macroeconomic environment. 

Keywords

• liquid biofuels production in Poland
• bioethanol
• biodiesel
• agricultural markets