Simulation of the Key Ecosystem Services Changes in China’s Loess Plateau under Various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios

Abstract

Understanding future ecosystem services (ESs) is crucial for optimizing ecosystems and devising sustainable development strategies. This study used China’s Loess Plateau as a case study to investigate key ESs from 2020 to 2100. It accomplished this by coupling the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs models under 3 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP119, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios). The results showed the following: (a) The generated land use exhibits strong performance, with an overall accuracy of 0.92. Among projected future land-use and land-cover changes, forests are expected to increase by 31.3% and 29.1% on the Loess Plateau under the SSP119 and SSP245 scenarios, respectively. (b) Between 2020 and 2100, soil conservation (SC) is projected to increase by 127.1% and 8.34%, carbon storage (CS) is projected to increase by 39.8% and 8.1%, while water yield (WY) is expected to decrease by 0.5% and 39.4% under the SSP119 and SSP245 scenarios, respectively. (c) The SSP245 scenario demonstrates the most substantial growth synergy area across the entire Loess Plateau. In this scenario, synergy areas related to SC&CS, CS&WY, and SC&WY are projected to increase by 39.1% and 20.6% while decreasing by 21.1%. These findings identified the most suitable scenario for enhancing ESs and optimizing trade-off relationships throughout the Loess Plateau. The research framework presented here can be applied to other vulnerable ecological regions worldwide.