Modification effects of socioeconomic factors on associations between air pollutants and hand, foot, and mouth disease: A multicity time-series study based on heavily polluted areas in the basin area of Sichuan Province, China

Abstract

Background Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a serious threat among children in China. Some studies have found that air pollution is associated with HFMD incidence, but the results showed heterogeneity. In this study, we aimed to explore the heterogeneity of associations between air pollutants and the number of HFMD cases and to identify significant socioeconomic effect modifiers. Methods We collected daily surveillance data on HFMD cases in those aged less than 15 years, air pollution variables and meteorological variables from 2015 to 2017 in the basin area of Sichuan Province. We also collected socioeconomic indicator data. We conducted a two-stage multicity time-series analysis. In the first stage, we constructed a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) to obtain cumulative exposure-response curves between each air pollutant and the numbers of HFMD cases for every city. In the second stage, we carried out a multivariable meta-regression to merge the estimations in the first stage and to identify significant socioeconomic effect modifiers. Results We found that PM10, NO2 and O3 concentrations were associated with the number of HFMD cases. An inverted V-shaped association between PM10 and the number of HFMD cases was observed. The overall NO2-HFMD association was a hockey-stick shape. For the relationships of PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO with HFMD counts, approximately 58.5%, 48.4%, 51.0%, 55.6% and 52.5% of the heterogeneity could be explained, respectively. The proportion of primary school students, population density, urbanization rate, number of licensed physicians and number of hospital beds explained part of the heterogeneity and modified the relationships. Conclusion Our study explored the heterogeneity of associations between air pollutants and HFMD counts. The proportion of primary school students, population density, urbanization rate, number of licensed physicians and number of hospital beds could modify the relationships. The results can serve as a reference for relevant public health decision making. Author summary This study constructed a two-stage multi-city time-series analysis to explore the heterogeneity of air pollutants-HFMD associations and identify significant socioeconomic effect modifiers, which may lead to heterogeneity. In the results, we found that PM10, NO2 and O3 concentrations were associated with HFMD. For each air pollutant-HFMD associations between cities, the heterogeneity was found. The proportion of primary school students, population density, urbanization rate, number of licensed physicians and number of hospital beds explained part of the heterogeneity. The results showed that demographic factors, economic factors, and health resource factors may influence the effect of air pollutants on HFMD, which could further the understanding of the associations between air pollutants and HFMD and could be as evidence for relevant public health decision-making.