Atmosphere (Oct 2023)
Roles of Air–Sea Interactions in the Predictability of Typhoon Mawar and Remote Heavy-Rainfall Events after Five Days
Abstract
This study investigated the relationship between the predicted track of Typhoon Mawar (2023) and the quasi-stationary front along the southern coast of Japan where heavy rainfall occurred. Also, the role of ocean coupling was explored by using global model predictions and numerical simulations conducted by a regional atmosphere–wave–ocean coupled model. The track predictions by four major global models showed that the prediction errors became significantly larger after the recurvature. One of the global models could reasonably predict both the track and the location of the front, even after five days. The results of numerical simulations of which the initial and boundary conditions were based on the successful predictions suggest that ocean coupling contributes to the improvement of central pressure simulations compared with fixed oceanic conditions. More northward translation of Mawar after the recurvature simulated by the coupled model could be explained by the separation of the inner-core vortex into two parts in the upper and lower troposphere. However, the predictability of the Subtropical High was more important in determining not only the track but also environmental southerly flow over the moisture road formed between Mawar and the Subtropical High and in accurately predicting the location of the front.
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