Identification and optimization of territorial spatial types based on population shrinking characteristics: A case study of Sichuan Province

Abstract

[Objective] To promote efficient utilization and sustainable development of territorial space, this study identified changes in territorial space functions considering different population shrinking characteristics, aiming to explore territorial space optimization strategies in response to population shrinking challenges. [Methods] By integrating multi-source data from county units in Sichuan Province from 2010 to 2020, this study measured population shrinking and territorial space function changes, and delineated territorial space zones based on population shrinking characteristics using elasticity coefficient. [Results] (1) The relationship between population demand and territorial space supply is the main driver of territorial space function formation and development. Population shrinking affects demand, driving changes in agricultural space management, urban space organization, and ecological space management patterns, thereby reshaping the pattern of territorial space functions. (2) Population shrinking in counties of Sichuan Province exhibited significant spatial differences and agglomeration characteristics, with 69.4% of the counties experiencing population shrinkage. This phenomenon was mainly concentrated in peripheral counties outside the central Chengdu area, as well as in most counties in the southern, northeastern, and southwestern parts of Sichuan. The simultaneous change of population quantity and structure, termed “dual shrinking”, was the main type observed. (3) The overall distribution of territorial space functions in counties of Sichuan showed a high in southeast and low in northwest spatial pattern. From 2010 to 2020, 74.9% of the counties experienced an enhancement in territorial space function. (4) Based on population shrinking characteristics, Sichuan’s county territorial space was divided into growth-oriented, extensive, lagging, intensive, declining, and deteriorating types. Territorial space optimization directions were proposed according to the population challenges and territorial space function changes faced by different types of areas. [Conclusion] Incorporating population aging into the measurement system for population shrinking provides a more comprehensive understanding of regional population shrinking characteristics.Future territorial space optimization at the county level in Sichuan Province should integrate population shrinking characteristics and changes in territorial space functions. This optimization should involve territorial space planning, comprehensive land consolidation, and policy support, optimizing agricultural, urban, and ecological spaces to meet the spatial development needs under varying population shrinking characteristics.

Keywords

• population shrinking|territorial space functions|space optimization|elasticity coefficient|county|sichuan province