Geoecological problems of agricultural environmental management in conditions of climatic fluctuations within the Voronezh forest-steppe

Abstract

The article describes the rhythmicity of climatic processes in the European part of Russia. An analysis of short-period climate rhythmicity is carried out against the background of 1850 summer rhythms. A forecast of temperature and precipitation for the 21st century is given. A methodological approach to assessing various types of responses to changes in climate processes and their impact on agriculture in the region is suggested. At the same time, changes develop structurally mainly in 3 directions: irreversible, qualitative and reversible. The necessity of considering climatic fluctuations when creating landscape-adaptive agriculture in the Voronezh forest-steppe is proved. To increase the accuracy of forecasts, it is necessary to expand the base of regional climate monitoring and to conduct monitoring and scientific research on the response of agricultural crops to climate change. The calculations made allow identifying trends in temperature and precipitation changes for the period of the 21st century. The proposed methodological approach can be applied in regional agricultural environmental management.