The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China

Jianpeng Xiao; Jianxiong Hu; Guanhao He; Tao Liu; Min Kang; Zuhua Rong; Lifeng Lin; Haojie Zhong; Qiong Huang; Aiping Deng; Weilin Zeng; Xiaohua Tan; Siqing Zeng; Zhihua Zhu; Jiansen Li; Dexin Gong; Donghua Wan; Shaowei Chen; Lingchuan Guo; Yihan Li; Yan Li; Limei Sun; Wenjia Liang; Tie Song; Jianfeng He; Wenjun Ma

International Journal of Infectious Diseases (Feb 2021)

The time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and synchronous public health interventions in China

Jianpeng Xiao,
Jianxiong Hu,
Guanhao He,
Tao Liu,
Min Kang,
Zuhua Rong,
Lifeng Lin,
Haojie Zhong,
Qiong Huang,
Aiping Deng,
Weilin Zeng,
Xiaohua Tan,
Siqing Zeng,
Zhihua Zhu,
Jiansen Li,
Dexin Gong,
Donghua Wan,
Shaowei Chen,
Lingchuan Guo,
Yihan Li,
Yan Li,
Limei Sun,
Wenjia Liang,
Tie Song,
Jianfeng He,
Wenjun Ma

Affiliations

Jianpeng Xiao: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Jianxiong Hu: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Guanhao He: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Tao Liu: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Min Kang: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Zuhua Rong: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Lifeng Lin: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Haojie Zhong: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Qiong Huang: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Aiping Deng: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Weilin Zeng: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Xiaohua Tan: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Siqing Zeng: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Zhihua Zhu: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Jiansen Li: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Dexin Gong: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Donghua Wan: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Shaowei Chen: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Lingchuan Guo: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Yihan Li: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Yan Li: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Limei Sun: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Wenjia Liang: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Tie Song: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China
Jianfeng He: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China; Corresponding author at: Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
Wenjun Ma: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China; Corresponding author at: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.

Journal volume & issue: Vol. 103
pp. 617 – 623

Abstract

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Objectives: We aimed to estimate the time-varying transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in China, Wuhan City, and Guangdong province, and compare to that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). Methods: Data on COVID-19 cases in China up to 20 March 2020 was collected from epidemiological investigations or official websites. Data on SARS cases in Guangdong Province, Beijing, and Hong Kong during 2002–3 was also obtained. We estimated the doubling time, basic reproduction number (R0), and time-varying reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 and SARS. Results: As of 20 March 2020, 80,739 locally acquired COVID-19 cases were identified in mainland China, with most cases reported between 20 January and 29 February 2020. The R0 value of COVID-19 in China and Wuhan was 5.0 and 4.8, respectively, which was greater than the R0 value of SARS in Guangdong (R0 = 2.3), Hong Kong (R0 = 2.3), and Beijing (R0 = 2.6). At the start of the COVID-19 epidemic, the Rt value in China peaked at 8.4 and then declined quickly to below 1.0 in one month. With SARS, the Rt curve saw fluctuations with more than one peak, the highest peak was lower than that for COVID-19. Conclusions: COVID-19 has much higher transmissibility than SARS, however, a series of prevention and control interventions to suppress the outbreak were effective. Sustained efforts are needed to prevent the rebound of the epidemic in the context of the global pandemic.

Published in International Journal of Infectious Diseases

ISSN: 1201-9712 (Print); 1878-3511 (Online)
Publisher: Elsevier
Country of publisher: Netherlands
LCC subjects: Medicine: Internal medicine: Infectious and parasitic diseases
Website: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/international-journal-of-infectious-diseases/

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