The effect of climate change on meteorological drought using the data of the Sixth Climate Change Report (Case study: Shiraz city)

Abstract

Abstract Introduction: Numerous studies have shown that climate change will have a severe impact on water resources around the world. In the present research, we have tried to investigate the occurrence of drought in Shiraz region under the conditions of climate change. Methods: In this research, using 4 models of the Sixth Climate Change Report and two scenarios, rainfall data was generated for the next two periods, and after microscaling, the severity of drought was determined using the SPI index with different time scales. The length of the base period of the analyzed data in the current research was 20 years and related to the time period of 1985-2005. Findings: Microscale results using the BCSD method indicate an increase in temperature in both future periods. According to the results, it can be seen that the difference of the MIROC6 model in both emission scenarios with the observed values was greater than the other GCM models used. According to the results of the current research, in all the models used and in both scenarios, the 20-year average values ​​of the six-month SPI index show the most negative values. In addition, the comparison of models and scenarios in the present study shows that the CanESM5 model shows a higher intensity of drought with a small difference than other models. Also, the results of the average values ​​of the SPI index show that this index shows the severity of the drought with a time scale of 48 months.

Keywords

• drought
• spi index
• shiraz
• sixth climate change report