Rapid changes in agricultural land use and hydrology in the Driftless Region

Abstract

Abstract Annual cropping systems are common in the Driftless Region of the U.S. Midwest, but soil degradation is prone to happen in such systems due to the rugged topography of the region. Recent rapid increases in row crop area have been noted in this region, with annual precipitation and hydrologic extremes on the rise in recent decades. The aim of this research to use geospatial datasets and tools in order to assess the regional trends in land use, precipitation, and hydrologic change and quantify the relationship between these environmental trends. Between 2006 and 2017, substantial row crop expansion of 10,000 ha or more was common across HUC 8 (Hydrologic Unit Code 8) watersheds in our study area. Expansion occurred mainly on steeper slopes, converting existing grasslands or alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) to row crops. Classifying land as planted (in row crops), plantable (in row crops or could be converted), and unplantable (unable to be converted) revealed that Driftless Region watersheds have ∼30–50% of plantable land available for future expansion. Annual precipitation was highly variable during this time period but had a general increasing trend. On average, precipitation showed higher correlation to streamflow compared to row crop expansion across 27 USGS river gage drainage basins in our study area. However, when the increase in row crop area was significant and was accompanied by increasing precipitation, stronger correlation between row crop area and annual streamflow was exhibited. This finding suggests that row crop expansion acts to enhance the effects of increasing precipitation on local hydrology.