The study of socio economic factors’ influence on the capacity dynamics of the pharmaceutical market in contracting conditions

Abstract

For the effective functioning of pharmaceutical companies in the current economic conditions it is necessary to carry out product policy aimed to expanding the range of medicines that are most popular. In order to make the efficient product range of drugs in the pharmaceutical industrial enterprises the aim of our research was an analysis of the socio economic factors affecting the quantitative potential of the pharmaceutical market on the example of a group of dexketoprofen. Materials and methods. During the research we used retrospective, logical, correlation-regression methods, mathematical modeling and methods of factor analysis. In order to determine the dependence of the influence of socio economic factors on the quantitative potential of the pharmaceutical market and prediction of its development, we developed and tested on the example of a group of dexketoprofen the method of predicting the capacity of the pharmaceutical market with the definition of factors influencing its size, which is based on the correlation-regression method of analysis and which consists of eight main stages. Results. The article presents the results of the study of the impact of various socio economic factors on the development of quantitative potential of the pharmaceutical market. Considered twenty three factors combined into six groups. According to the results of correlation analysis, 14 factors that have the greatest impact on sales are selected. Using a step-by-step regression method, a regression model was developed, which included such factors as the average monthly wage and household expenditure on healthcare. The prediction of the quantitative potential of the pharmaceutical market for 2018 is carried out on the basis of extrapolation of the values of the factors that have the most effect on the resultant variable. Conclusions. A method for predicting the size of the potential of market of dexketoprofen based on multiple regression was developed. This method is designed to assess the attractiveness of the studied market segment based on data of the previous demand for them and taking into account the influence of external and internal environmental factors, selected on the basis of the results of the correlation analysis.

Keywords

• pharmaceutical market
• commerce
• nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory agents
• systems analysis
• economic factors
• competition