eLife (Jul 2021)
Lives saved with vaccination for 10 pathogens across 112 countries in a pre-COVID-19 world
- Jaspreet Toor,
- Susy Echeverria-Londono,
- Xiang Li,
- Kaja Abbas,
- Emily D Carter,
- Hannah E Clapham,
- Andrew Clark,
- Margaret J de Villiers,
- Kirsten Eilertson,
- Matthew Ferrari,
- Ivane Gamkrelidze,
- Timothy B Hallett,
- Wes R Hinsley,
- Daniel Hogan,
- John H Huber,
- Michael L Jackson,
- Kevin Jean,
- Mark Jit,
- Andromachi Karachaliou,
- Petra Klepac,
- Alicia Kraay,
- Justin Lessler,
- Xi Li,
- Benjamin A Lopman,
- Tewodaj Mengistu,
- C Jessica E Metcalf,
- Sean M Moore,
- Shevanthi Nayagam,
- Timos Papadopoulos,
- T Alex Perkins,
- Allison Portnoy,
- Homie Razavi,
- Devin Razavi-Shearer,
- Stephen Resch,
- Colin Sanderson,
- Steven Sweet,
- Yvonne Tam,
- Hira Tanvir,
- Quan Tran Minh,
- Caroline L Trotter,
- Shaun A Truelove,
- Emilia Vynnycky,
- Neff Walker,
- Amy Winter,
- Kim Woodruff,
- Neil M Ferguson,
- Katy AM Gaythorpe
Affiliations
- Jaspreet Toor
- ORCiD
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Susy Echeverria-Londono
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Xiang Li
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Kaja Abbas
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Emily D Carter
- Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States
- Hannah E Clapham
- ORCiD
- Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore; Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Vietnam; Nuffield Department of Medicine, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Andrew Clark
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Margaret J de Villiers
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Kirsten Eilertson
- Colorado State University, Fort Collins, United States
- Matthew Ferrari
- Pennsylvania State University, State College, United States
- Ivane Gamkrelidze
- Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette, United States
- Timothy B Hallett
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Wes R Hinsley
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Daniel Hogan
- Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, Geneva, Switzerland
- John H Huber
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United States
- Michael L Jackson
- Kaiser Permanente Washington, Seattle, United States
- Kevin Jean
- ORCiD
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Laboratoire MESuRS and Unite PACRI, Institut Pasteur, Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, Paris, France
- Mark Jit
- ORCiD
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong, China
- Andromachi Karachaliou
- University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Petra Klepac
- ORCiD
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Alicia Kraay
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, United States
- Justin Lessler
- ORCiD
- Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States
- Xi Li
- Independent, Atlanta, United States
- Benjamin A Lopman
- Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, United States
- Tewodaj Mengistu
- ORCiD
- Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, Geneva, Switzerland
- C Jessica E Metcalf
- ORCiD
- Princeton University, Princeton NJ, United States
- Sean M Moore
- ORCiD
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United States
- Shevanthi Nayagam
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Section of Hepatology and Gastroenterology, Department of Metabolism, Digestion and Reproduction, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Timos Papadopoulos
- Public Health England, London, United Kingdom; University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom
- T Alex Perkins
- ORCiD
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United States
- Allison Portnoy
- Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, United States
- Homie Razavi
- Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette, United States
- Devin Razavi-Shearer
- Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Lafayette, United States
- Stephen Resch
- Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, United States
- Colin Sanderson
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Steven Sweet
- Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, United States
- Yvonne Tam
- Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States
- Hira Tanvir
- London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Quan Tran Minh
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, United States
- Caroline L Trotter
- University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- Shaun A Truelove
- ORCiD
- Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States
- Emilia Vynnycky
- Public Health England, London, United Kingdom
- Neff Walker
- Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States
- Amy Winter
- Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, United States
- Kim Woodruff
- ORCiD
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Neil M Ferguson
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Katy AM Gaythorpe
- ORCiD
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis; and the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.67635
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 10
Abstract
Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective public health interventions. We investigate the impact of vaccination activities for Haemophilus influenzae type b, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, rotavirus, rubella, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and yellow fever over the years 2000–2030 across 112 countries. Methods: Twenty-one mathematical models estimated disease burden using standardised demographic and immunisation data. Impact was attributed to the year of vaccination through vaccine-activity-stratified impact ratios. Results: We estimate 97 (95%CrI[80, 120]) million deaths would be averted due to vaccination activities over 2000–2030, with 50 (95%CrI[41, 62]) million deaths averted by activities between 2000 and 2019. For children under-5 born between 2000 and 2030, we estimate 52 (95%CrI[41, 69]) million more deaths would occur over their lifetimes without vaccination against these diseases. Conclusions: This study represents the largest assessment of vaccine impact before COVID-19-related disruptions and provides motivation for sustaining and improving global vaccination coverage in the future. Funding: VIMC is jointly funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) (BMGF grant number: OPP1157270 / INV-009125). Funding from Gavi is channelled via VIMC to the Consortium’s modelling groups (VIMC-funded institutions represented in this paper: Imperial College London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Public Health England, Johns Hopkins University, The Pennsylvania State University, Center for Disease Analysis Foundation, Kaiser Permanente Washington, University of Cambridge, University of Notre Dame, Harvard University, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers, Emory University, National University of Singapore). Funding from BMGF was used for salaries of the Consortium secretariat (authors represented here: TBH, MJ, XL, SE-L, JT, KW, NMF, KAMG); and channelled via VIMC for travel and subsistence costs of all Consortium members (all authors). We also acknowledge funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, which supported aspects of VIMC's work (MRC grant number: MR/R015600/1).
Keywords
