Spatiotemporal drivers of Nature's contributions to people: A county-level study

Abstract

Nature's contributions to people (NCP) encompass both the beneficial and detrimental effects of living nature on human quality of life, including regulatory, material, and non-material contributions. Globally, vital NCPs have been deteriorating, accelerated by changes in both natural and anthropogenic drivers over recent decades. Despite the often inevitable trade-offs between NCPs due to their spatially and temporally uneven distributions, few studies have quantitatively assessed the impacts of different drivers on the spatial and temporal changes in multiple NCPs and their interrelationships. Here we evaluate the effects of precipitation, temperature, population, gross domestic product, vegetation restoration, and urban expansion on four key regulatory NCPs—habitat maintenance, climate regulation, water quantity regulation, and soil protection—in Nei Mongol at the county level. We observe increasing trends in climate regulation and soil protection from 2000 to 2019, contrasted with declining trends in habitat maintenance and water quantity regulation. We have identified the dominant positive and negative drivers influencing each NCP across individual counties, finding that natural drivers predominantly overpowered anthropogenic drivers. Furthermore, we discover significant spatial disparities in the trade-off or synergy relationships between NCPs across the counties. Our findings illustrate how the impacts of various drivers on NCPs and their interrelationships can be quantitatively evaluated, offering significant potential for application in various spatial scales. With an understanding of trade-offs and scale effects, these insights are expected to support and inform policymaking at both county and provincial levels.

Keywords

• Potential regulating contributions
• Natural and anthropogenic drivers
• Path analysis
• Trade-off or synergy relationship
• China