Decision support based on performance data using the analytic hierarchy process without expert judgement

Abstract

Goal: This article proposes a decision model based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process that allows carrying out the evaluation of alternatives in a multicriteria problem, without expert judgement. Design / Methodology / Approach: The algorithm is based on AHP. The novelty is the transformation of a performance data matrix into pairwise evaluation matrices, instead of using experts’ judgement. Results: The algorithm was applied in a defense procurement problem for the choice of a light 4x4 vehicle for amphibious operations. The results allowed ranking the 17 models based on catalog data. Limitations of the investigation: the algorithm depends on the availability of catalog data, not always available in open sources in the defense industry. Practical implications: Decision support involves several activities in Operations Management and AHP has been frequently applied to solve problems in this sector. The proposed algorithm allows performing deterministic or probabilistic evaluations, depending on the degree of uncertainty and precision involving the systems’ performance data. These assessments are composed of scenarios to facilitate decision making. Originality / Value: AHP typically uses experts for pairwise judgments. However, human judgment is subject to outcomes that involve bias and cognitive distortions. Few studies have modeled the AHP without experts, even so they used human judgment in some part of the process. The approach proposed here does not require human judgment and returns two different results, based on the database precision. This new approach gives decision makers a different perspective and can alter the final choice.

Keywords

• AHP
• Technical Performance
• Decision without Experts
• Defense Procurement