Probabilistic and Statistical Techniques to Study the Impact of Localized Corrosion Defects in Oil and Gas Pipelines: A Review

Abstract

Corrosion is a major cause of the loss of hermeticity in oil and gas pipelines. Corrosion defects affect the remaining life of in-service pipelines and can lead to failures, ruptures, hydrocarbon leakage, product loss, interruptions, environmental damage, economic losses, or, in the worst cases, fatalities. The existence of localized corrosion defects is a significant issue in pipeline integrity analysis, mainly because these structures are commonly buried and cover large extensions, amounting to hundreds or even thousands of miles; thus, it is difficult to size and locate all minor but possibly deep defects. Consequently, probabilistic and statistical modeling methods have been widely used to assess the integrity of corroded pipelines. Statistical modeling methods used to estimate the remaining life of the pipeline have focused on three main aspects: applications to estimate the defect depths and rates of corrosion, Bayesian applications in pipeline integrity to update the probability distribution for corrosion defects (depth, length, and spatial distribution), and pipeline reliability estimations. This paper reviews several methods proposed in the literature for these issues as well as their applications in real life. In addition, some of the present and future challenges related to preventing corrosion in the oil and gas pipeline industry are described.

Keywords

• corrosion defect
• pipeline
• oil and gas
• probability and statistics
• modeling
• carbon steel