Determinants of the real estate market in the Republic of Serbia: Overview and findings

Abstract

Value changes in the real estate market affect both the quality of bank loan portfolios and financial stability and the real economy. The Republic of Serbia is one of the countries facing an upward trend in demand for housing. This paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic and banking variables on the real estate price index in Serbia for the period from 2014 to 2023 on a quarterly basis. Also, panel regression and correlation analysis are applied in this research. The selected independent (explanatory) variables are the gross domestic product, the consumer price index, the interest rate on bank loans, the exchange rate of the domestic currency against the Euro and household saving. The research results showed that the independent variable consumer price index had the most significant impact on the housing price index. On the other hand, the following independent variables had the most significant negative impact on the dependent variable (housing price index): interest rate on bank loans and the domestic currency against the Euro.

Keywords

• real estate price index
• macroeconomic variables
• banking variables
• shapiro wilk test
• breusch-pagan test
• regression analysis
• hausman test