Geophysical Research Letters (Aug 2021)
Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
- Antony J. Payne,
- Sophie Nowicki,
- Ayako Abe‐Ouchi,
- Cécile Agosta,
- Patrick Alexander,
- Torsten Albrecht,
- Xylar Asay‐Davis,
- Andy Aschwanden,
- Alice Barthel,
- Thomas J. Bracegirdle,
- Reinhard Calov,
- Christopher Chambers,
- Youngmin Choi,
- Richard Cullather,
- Joshua Cuzzone,
- Christophe Dumas,
- Tamsin L. Edwards,
- Denis Felikson,
- Xavier Fettweis,
- Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi,
- Heiko Goelzer,
- Rupert Gladstone,
- Nicholas R. Golledge,
- Jonathan M. Gregory,
- Ralf Greve,
- Tore Hattermann,
- Matthew J. Hoffman,
- Angelika Humbert,
- Philippe Huybrechts,
- Nicolas C. Jourdain,
- Thomas Kleiner,
- Peter Kuipers Munneke,
- Eric Larour,
- Sebastien Le clec'h,
- Victoria Lee,
- Gunter Leguy,
- William H. Lipscomb,
- Christopher M. Little,
- Daniel P. Lowry,
- Mathieu Morlighem,
- Isabel Nias,
- Frank Pattyn,
- Tyler Pelle,
- Stephen F. Price,
- Aurélien Quiquet,
- Ronja Reese,
- Martin Rückamp,
- Nicole‐Jeanne Schlegel,
- Hélène Seroussi,
- Andrew Shepherd,
- Erika Simon,
- Donald Slater,
- Robin S. Smith,
- Fiammetta Straneo,
- Sainan Sun,
- Lev Tarasov,
- Luke D. Trusel,
- Jonas Van Breedam,
- Roderik van deWal,
- Michiel van denBroeke,
- Ricarda Winkelmann,
- Chen Zhao,
- Tong Zhang,
- Thomas Zwinger
Affiliations
- Antony J. Payne
- Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling University of Bristol Bristol UK
- Sophie Nowicki
- Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA
- Ayako Abe‐Ouchi
- Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute The University of Tokyo Kashiwa‐shi Japan
- Cécile Agosta
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement LSCE‐IPSL CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ Université Paris‐Saclay Gif‐sur‐Yvette France
- Patrick Alexander
- Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Columbia University Palisades NY USA
- Torsten Albrecht
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam Germany
- Xylar Asay‐Davis
- Theoretical Division Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos NM USA
- Andy Aschwanden
- Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks AK USA
- Alice Barthel
- Theoretical Division Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos NM USA
- Thomas J. Bracegirdle
- British Antarctic Survey Cambridge UK
- Reinhard Calov
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam Germany
- Christopher Chambers
- Institute of Low Temperature Science Hokkaido University Sapporo Japan
- Youngmin Choi
- Department of Earth System Science University of California Irvine Irvine USA
- Richard Cullather
- Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA
- Joshua Cuzzone
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USA
- Christophe Dumas
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement LSCE‐IPSL CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ Université Paris‐Saclay Gif‐sur‐Yvette France
- Tamsin L. Edwards
- Department of Geography King's College London London UK
- Denis Felikson
- Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA
- Xavier Fettweis
- Laboratory of Climatology Department of Geography University of Liége Liége Belgium
- Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi
- Australian Antarctic Division Kingston TAS Australia
- Heiko Goelzer
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands
- Rupert Gladstone
- Arctic Centre University of Lapland Finland
- Nicholas R. Golledge
- Antarctic Research Centre Victoria University of Wellington New Zealand
- Jonathan M. Gregory
- National Center for Atmospheric Science University of Reading Reading UK
- Ralf Greve
- British Antarctic Survey Cambridge UK
- Tore Hattermann
- Norwegian Polar Institute Tromsø Norway
- Matthew J. Hoffman
- Theoretical Division Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos NM USA
- Angelika Humbert
- Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven Germany
- Philippe Huybrechts
- Earth System Science and Departement Geografie Vrije Universiteit Brussel Brussels Belgium
- Nicolas C. Jourdain
- Univ. Grenoble Alpes/CNRS/IRD/G‐INP Institut des Géosciences de l'Environnement France
- Thomas Kleiner
- Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven Germany
- Peter Kuipers Munneke
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands
- Eric Larour
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USA
- Sebastien Le clec'h
- Earth System Science and Departement Geografie Vrije Universiteit Brussel Brussels Belgium
- Victoria Lee
- Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling University of Bristol Bristol UK
- Gunter Leguy
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
- William H. Lipscomb
- Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
- Christopher M. Little
- Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Lexington MA USA
- Daniel P. Lowry
- GNS Science Lower Hutt New Zealand
- Mathieu Morlighem
- Department of Earth System Science University of California Irvine Irvine USA
- Isabel Nias
- Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA
- Frank Pattyn
- Laboratoire de Glaciologie Université Libre de Bruxelles Brussels Belgium
- Tyler Pelle
- Department of Earth System Science University of California Irvine Irvine USA
- Stephen F. Price
- Theoretical Division Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos NM USA
- Aurélien Quiquet
- Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement LSCE‐IPSL CEA‐CNRS‐UVSQ Université Paris‐Saclay Gif‐sur‐Yvette France
- Ronja Reese
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam Germany
- Martin Rückamp
- Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven Germany
- Nicole‐Jeanne Schlegel
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USA
- Hélène Seroussi
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USA
- Andrew Shepherd
- Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling University of Leeds UK
- Erika Simon
- Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA
- Donald Slater
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San Diego La Jolla CA USA
- Robin S. Smith
- National Center for Atmospheric Science University of Reading Reading UK
- Fiammetta Straneo
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California San Diego La Jolla CA USA
- Sainan Sun
- Laboratoire de Glaciologie Université Libre de Bruxelles Brussels Belgium
- Lev Tarasov
- Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography Memorial University of Newfoundland Canada
- Luke D. Trusel
- Department of Geography Pennsylvania State University University Park PA USA
- Jonas Van Breedam
- Earth System Science and Departement Geografie Vrije Universiteit Brussel Brussels Belgium
- Roderik van deWal
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands
- Michiel van denBroeke
- Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht Utrecht University Utrecht The Netherlands
- Ricarda Winkelmann
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam Germany
- Chen Zhao
- Australian Antarctic Program Partnership Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart TAS Australia
- Tong Zhang
- Theoretical Division Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos NM USA
- Thomas Zwinger
- CSC‐IT Center for Science Espoo Finland
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 48,
no. 16
pp. n/a – n/a
Abstract
Abstract Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.
Keywords
