A study on bank credit volumes of fragile five countries

Abstract

Fragility can be defined in different ways depending on the economic unit studied, the risk factor and the perspective of the researcher. The common points of economic units, which are considered as fragile, are that they are mostly fragile due to events that develop against their will (for example, economic crises, internal and external shocks). In this study, it was aimed to investigate the relationship between each other by examining the "Credit/GDP" ratios of "Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey" grouped as the "Fragile Five" between 1996Q1-2022Q2. The series used in the study, Extended Dickey Fuller (ADF), Philips Perron (PP) unit root tests were used to investigate the degree of stationarity of the series. Whether there is a causal relationship between the series, and if there is causality, it was analyzed with the Toda-Yamamoto method to determine its directions. According to the results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, at the 5% significance level, a causality relationship was found between Brazil and India among the fragile five countries, while no causality relationship was found between the other countries in the reciprocal tests.

Keywords

• kırılgan beşli ülkeleri
• krediler
• genişletilmiş dickey fuller (adf)
• philips perron (pp)
• toda-yamamoto nedensellik testi.
• fragile five countries
• loans
• extended dickey-fuller
• philips-perron (pp)
• toda-yamamoto causality test