Ship Safety Policy Recommendations for Korea: Application of System Dynamics

Abstract

This study aimed to demonstrate and quantify the factors that influence ship safety and ship accidents and suggest policy recommendations for both government and the marine industry in Korea based on the application of system dynamics (SD). Korea was selected as the target country because a number of recent ship accidents have focused attention on ship safety in the region. Three factors that can influence ship safety were considered: economic factors, ship-handling and management factors, and government budget allocation of ship industry. SD was then applied to model the factors involved in ship accidents. Data on ship accidents in Korea from 2009–2014 were included in the model simulation. To measure the simulation accuracy, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) analysis was employed. Following the simulation, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the relationships among the factors involved in ship accidents. Finally, a simulation incorporating ship accident data and government budget allocated to the ship industry was performed. The results of this study can be used in government policy recommendations on ship safety to prevent and reduce ship accidents.

Keywords

• System Dynamics
• Ship Accident
• Scenario Analysis
• Policy Recommendation