DEVELOPMENT OF METHODS OF EVALUATION OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS IN THE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY USING FUZZY SETS AND THE METHOD OF SCENARIOS

Abstract

The article has developed a methodology for evaluating investment projects based on fuzzy sets and the method of scenarios. These methods allow assessing risks in the face of considerable uncertainty. The primary goal was the ranking of risks in order of importance based on expert assessments. 12 experienced oil and gas specialists were involved in the risk assessment. As a result, 5 of the most significant risks were selected. The following data presented in the form of a fuzzy number were used as the initial data and the resulting values in evaluating the effectiveness of investment projects: net present value, internal rate of return, project payback period.

Keywords

• risk assessment
• fuzzy set method
• scenario method
• decision maker