Frontiers in Neuroimaging (Dec 2023)
Recalibrating single-study effect sizes using hierarchical Bayesian models
- Zhipeng Cao,
- Zhipeng Cao,
- Matthew McCabe,
- Peter Callas,
- Renata B. Cupertino,
- Jonatan Ottino-González,
- Alistair Murphy,
- Devarshi Pancholi,
- Nathan Schwab,
- Orr Catherine,
- Kent Hutchison,
- Janna Cousijn,
- Alain Dagher,
- John J. Foxe,
- Anna E. Goudriaan,
- Robert Hester,
- Chiang-Shan R. Li,
- Wesley K. Thompson,
- Angelica M. Morales,
- Edythe D. London,
- Valentina Lorenzetti,
- Maartje Luijten,
- Rocio Martin-Santos,
- Reza Momenan,
- Martin P. Paulus,
- Martin P. Paulus,
- Lianne Schmaal,
- Lianne Schmaal,
- Rajita Sinha,
- Nadia Solowij,
- Dan J. Stein,
- Elliot A. Stein,
- Anne Uhlmann,
- Ruth J. van Holst,
- Dick J. Veltman,
- Reinout W. Wiers,
- Murat Yücel,
- Sheng Zhang,
- Patricia Conrod,
- Scott Mackey,
- Hugh Garavan,
- The ENIGMA Addiction Working Group
Affiliations
- Zhipeng Cao
- Shanghai Xuhui Mental Health Center, Shanghai, China
- Zhipeng Cao
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont College of Medicine, Burlington, VT, United States
- Matthew McCabe
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont College of Medicine, Burlington, VT, United States
- Peter Callas
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Vermont College of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences, Burlington, VT, United States
- Renata B. Cupertino
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont College of Medicine, Burlington, VT, United States
- Jonatan Ottino-González
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont College of Medicine, Burlington, VT, United States
- Alistair Murphy
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont College of Medicine, Burlington, VT, United States
- Devarshi Pancholi
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont College of Medicine, Burlington, VT, United States
- Nathan Schwab
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont College of Medicine, Burlington, VT, United States
- Orr Catherine
- Department of Psychological Sciences, School of Health Sciences, Swinburne University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Kent Hutchison
- Department of Psychology and Neuroscience, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States
- Janna Cousijn
- Department of Psychology, Education and Child Studies, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
- Alain Dagher
- Department of Neurology and Neurosurgery, Montreal Neurological Institute, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
- John J. Foxe
- Department of Neuroscience, The Ernest J. Del Monte Institute for Neuroscience, University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, NY, United States
- Anna E. Goudriaan
- Department of Psychiatry, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Robert Hester
- 0Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Chiang-Shan R. Li
- 1Department of Psychiatry, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, United States
- Wesley K. Thompson
- 2Laureate Institute for Brain Research, Tulsa, OK, United States
- Angelica M. Morales
- 3Department of Psychiatry at Oregon Health and Science University, Portland, OR, United States
- Edythe D. London
- 4David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
- Valentina Lorenzetti
- 5Neuroscience of Addiction and Mental Health Program, Healthy Brain and Mind Research Centre, School of Behavioural & Health Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Australian Catholic University, Australia
- Maartje Luijten
- 6Behavioural Science Institute, Radboud University, Nijmegen, Netherlands
- Rocio Martin-Santos
- 7Department of Psychiatry and Psychology, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
- Reza Momenan
- 8Clinical NeuroImaging Research Core, Division of Intramural Clinical and Biological Research, National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, Bethesda, MD, United States
- Martin P. Paulus
- 2Laureate Institute for Brain Research, Tulsa, OK, United States
- Martin P. Paulus
- 9VA San Diego Healthcare System and Department of Psychiatry, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States
- Lianne Schmaal
- 0Orygen, Parkville, VIC, Australia
- Lianne Schmaal
- 1Centre for Youth Mental Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Rajita Sinha
- 1Department of Psychiatry, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, United States
- Nadia Solowij
- 2School of Psychology and Illawarra Health and Medical Research Institute, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW, Australia
- Dan J. Stein
- 3SA MRC Unit on Risk and Resilience in Mental Disorders, Department of Psychiatry and Neuroscience Institute, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
- Elliot A. Stein
- 4Neuroimaging Research Branch, Intramural Research Program, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Baltimore, MD, United States
- Anne Uhlmann
- 5Department of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany
- Ruth J. van Holst
- Department of Psychiatry, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Dick J. Veltman
- Department of Psychiatry, Amsterdam UMC, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Reinout W. Wiers
- 6Addiction Development and Psychopathology (ADAPT)-Lab, Department of Psychology and Center for Urban Mental Health, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
- Murat Yücel
- 7BrainPark, Turner Institute for Brain and Mental Health, School of Psychological Sciences, and Monash Biomedical Imaging Facility, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Sheng Zhang
- 1Department of Psychiatry, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, United States
- Patricia Conrod
- 8Department of Psychiatry, Université de Montreal, CHU Ste Justine Hospital, Montreal, QC, Canada
- Scott Mackey
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont College of Medicine, Burlington, VT, United States
- Hugh Garavan
- Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont College of Medicine, Burlington, VT, United States
- The ENIGMA Addiction Working Group
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3389/fnimg.2023.1138193
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 2
Abstract
IntroductionThere are growing concerns about commonly inflated effect sizes in small neuroimaging studies, yet no study has addressed recalibrating effect size estimates for small samples. To tackle this issue, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian model to adjust the magnitude of single-study effect sizes while incorporating a tailored estimation of sampling variance.MethodsWe estimated the effect sizes of case-control differences on brain structural features between individuals who were dependent on alcohol, nicotine, cocaine, methamphetamine, or cannabis and non-dependent participants for 21 individual studies (Total cases: 903; Total controls: 996). Then, the study-specific effect sizes were modeled using a hierarchical Bayesian approach in which the parameters of the study-specific effect size distributions were sampled from a higher-order overarching distribution. The posterior distribution of the overarching and study-specific parameters was approximated using the Gibbs sampling method.ResultsThe results showed shrinkage of the posterior distribution of the study-specific estimates toward the overarching estimates given the original effect sizes observed in individual studies. Differences between the original effect sizes (i.e., Cohen's d) and the point estimate of the posterior distribution ranged from 0 to 0.97. The magnitude of adjustment was negatively correlated with the sample size (r = −0.27, p < 0.001) and positively correlated with empirically estimated sampling variance (r = 0.40, p < 0.001), suggesting studies with smaller samples and larger sampling variance tended to have greater adjustments.DiscussionOur findings demonstrate the utility of the hierarchical Bayesian model in recalibrating single-study effect sizes using information from similar studies. This suggests that Bayesian utilization of existing knowledge can be an effective alternative approach to improve the effect size estimation in individual studies, particularly for those with smaller samples.
Keywords
- effect size recalibration
- hierarchical Bayesian model
- case-control differences
- substance dependence
- small sample size
- inflated effect size
