Exploring the spatiotemporal effects of meteorological factors on hand, foot and mouth disease: a multiscale geographically and temporally weighted regression study

Abstract

Abstract The influence of meteorological factors on hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is not on the same scale, it’s rare for previous studies to measure and recognize the independent regression relationship between each variable in space and time scale. This study used a multiscale geographically and temporally weighted regression (MGTWR) model to explore the relationship between the incidence of HFMD and related meteorological factors in Shandong Province, China, during 2015–2019 and attempted to quantify the influence of meteorological factors on HFMD under different spatiotemporal effects. Meanwhile, we used the Global Moran’s I statistic and Local Moran’s I statistic to test the spatial autocorrelation of the incidence of HFMD. HFMD had spatial autocorrelation at the county level in Shandong Province. The MGTWR model outperformed the OLS and GTWR models in determining the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD. The study highlights significant spatiotemporal non-stationarity in the relationship between meteorological factors and HFMD. Temperature was predominantly positively correlated with HFMD, especially in the peninsula region during spring and summer. Humidity exhibited a predominantly positive correlation, especially in the Shandong Peninsula. Precipitation also showed a positive correlation with HFMD, particularly in western regions and during the winter months. Wind speed had a predominantly negative correlation with HFMD in the central and southwestern regions. The results might help public health authorities set priorities for targeted prevention and control measures in different regions and weather conditions, and provide guidance for the government to rationally allocate public health resources.

Keywords

• HFMD
• Meteorological factors
• Moran’s I
• MGTWR
• Spatiotemporal heterogeneity