Impact of interest rates on forest management planning based on multi-criteria decision analysis

Abstract

The fulfilment of forest functions is significantly affected by forest management, especially the applied harvest regeneration systems. The interest rate can significantly influence forest regeneration planning but was rarely tested. We examined how different interest rates (0%, 0.5%, 1%, 1.5%, 2%, 2.5% and 3%) affect the fulfilment of multiple forest functions and hence, the decision on the optimal forest regeneration system for multiple criteria. The analysis was performed based on the simulation of 450 different harvest-regeneration systems applied to a secondary spruce dominated forest stand and the multi-criteria a posteriori decision analysis. The outputs from the growth simulator were used to quantify the fulfilment of timber production and non-production functions. Three selected indicators (Soil expectation value, Shannon index of species diversity, and height to diameter ratio) were analysed on the base of single-criteria optimisation based on maximising a single indicator and the methods of multi-criteria optimisation of the weighted sum method and Pareto front with the goal to harmonise the fulfilment of three different functions. The results indicated that lower interest rates favoured single tree cutting systems with relatively long rotation cycles (140–160 years), while higher interest rates favoured strip cutting with shorter rotation cycles (90–100 years).

Keywords

• multi-criteria optimisation
• pareto front
• weighted sum method
• timber production
• species diversity
• stand stability