How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management?

Abstract

Strategies are proposed to cope with uncertainties in a way that all possible kinds of uncertainty are named, recognized, statistically quantified as far as possible and utilized in efficient decision-making in flood risk management (FRM). We elaborated on the metaphor of uncertainty as a monster. We recommend two strategies to cope with the uncertainty monster to support efficient decision-making in FRM: monster adaptation and monster assimilation. We present three cases to illustrate these strategies. We argue that these strategies benefit from improving the structure and reducing the complexity of decision problems. We discuss ways to involve decision-makers in FRM, and how communication strategies can be responsive to their informational needs.

Keywords

• flood risk management
• decision-making
• uncertainty
• risk perceptions
• storylines