The Impact of Climate Change on Solar Radiation and Photovoltaic Energy Yields in China

Abstract

Solar photovoltaics is a direct use of solar resources to generate electricity, which is one of the most important renewable energy application approaches. Regional PV output could be affected by the regional patterns of temperature and irradiance, which are impacted by climate change. This study examines the impact of climate change on the energy yields from solar PV across China in the future under the medium-emission scenario (SSP245) and high-emission scenario (SSP585) by calculating PV potential using the data of solar radiation on a tilted surface and temperature. Generally, under the SSP245 scenario, solar radiation increased by 0.8% and 2.15%, and PV energy yields increased by 0.28% and 1.21% in 2020–2060 and 2061–2099, respectively; under the SSP585 scenario, solar radiation increased by 0.73% and 1.35%, and PV energy yields increased by 0.04% and −1.21% in 2020–2060 and 2061–2099, respectively. Under both scenarios, PV energy potential showed an obvious increase in southeast and central China and a significant decrease in northwest China, Tibet, and Inner Mongolia. Therefore, it is suggested that under the medium-emission scenario, climate change could increase the PV energy potential, while under the high-emission scenario, it could inhibit the PV energy potential in China.

Keywords

• climate change
• CMIP6
• solar photovoltaics
• energy yield potential
• solar radiation
• temperature