Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Concrete Structure Using Multi-Linear Regression Technique

Abstract

The dynamic analysis of structures with uncertain parameters presents an attractive field of structural health monitoring in many cases of technological interest. In the dynamic analysis of hydraulic structures, such as existing dams, modeling assumptions, resulting inaccuracies, and changes in seismic loading are typically the main sources of uncertainties. Many hydraulic structures of concrete can be subjected to seismic loads. However, it is necessary to take haphazard or random phenomena as crucial considerations when assessing the security of these structures or planning new ones. This paper shows computational analysis for the characterization of the behavior of a concrete gravity dam under seismic loads, which are considered sources of uncertainties. The multi-linear regression methodology was performed and applied to evaluate the dynamic response of the considered structure. Numerous nonlinear time history analyses based on Latin Hypercube Sampling were realized to investigate the effect of uncertain parameters on the dynamic response. These analyses were applied to two types of seismic actions, the near and far earthquakes, which act on a concrete gravity dam. Then, a sensitivity analysis was used for each random variable to quantify its risk and clarify its influence on the dynamic behavior of the dam. Results divulge that for near-fault cases, major variables affecting the global sensitivity across all limit states are the Young’s modulus of soil and concrete. On the other hand, for far-fault cases, the important variables influencing the global sensitivity index include the compressive strength of concrete, Young’s modulus of soil, and cohesion.

Keywords

• Damage Assessment
• Multi-Linear Regression Technique
• Probabilistic model
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Concrete structure