Multiple Scenario Perspective of Production-Living-Ecological Space Change Simulation and Effect Evaluation in Yunnan Province

Abstract

[Objective] To optimizing the pattern of territorial space development and coordinating the pattern of production-living-ecological space is the key task and fundamental way to achieve sustainable development in the future. [Methods] Based on the land use in Yunnan Province and combined with the natural and social development factors, the MOP-PLUS coupling model was used to simulate the changes of production-living-ecological space and its effects under three scenarios of economic priority, ecological priority and collaborative development in 2030. [Results] (1) Under the three scenarios, the economic benefit increased by 40.29%, 32.10% and 34.79%, the ecological benefit decreased by 0.89%, 0 (unchanged) and 0.06%, the average habitat quality decreased by 0.78%, 0.38% and 0.43%, and the average spatial conflict intensity increased by 2.79%, decreased by 1.21% and decreased by 2.32%. (2) Living space increased and ecological space decreased in the three scenarios. Production space only increased slightly in the economic priority scenario. In all cases, living space encroached on production space, and then production space plagued ecological space. The expansion of living space showed a trend of encroaching from the center to the periphery. (3) Habitat quality decreased to some extent under different development scenarios, and spatial conflicts could be balanced by optimizing spatial layout. Compared with other scenarios, the growth of economic benefits in the collaborative development scenario was moderate, the variation range of habitat quality was relatively balanced, and the intensity of spatial conflicts decreased the most, which was in line with the multiple goals of ecological protection, economic development and social progress. [Conclusion] The simulation-effect-optimization feedback regulation mechanism formed in this paper can be combined with different scales and objectives to carry out land use change simulation and effect analysis, and provide a basis for decision-making of territorial space allocation.

Keywords

• production-living-ecological space
• mop-plus model
• multi-scenario simulation
• habitat quality
• space conflict
• yunnan province