Exponentially Weighted Multivariate HAR Model with Applications in the Stock Market

Abstract

This paper considers a multivariate time series model for stock prices in the stock market. A multivariate heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model is adopted with exponentially decaying coefficients. This model is not only suitable for multivariate data with strong cross-correlation and long memory, but also represents a common structure of the joint data in terms of decay rates. Tests are proposed to identify the existence of the decay rates in the multivariate HAR model. The null limiting distributions are established as the standard Brownian bridge and are proven by means of a modified martingale central limit theorem. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of tests and estimates. Empirical analysis with joint datasets of U.S. stock prices illustrates that the proposed model outperforms the conventional HAR models via OLSE and LASSO with respect to residual errors.

Keywords

• multivariate HAR model
• CUSUM test
• exponentially decaying coefficients
• stock price