Modelling street level PM₁₀ concentrations across Europe: source apportionment and possible futures

Abstract

Despite increasing emission controls, particulate matter (PM) has remained a critical issue for European air quality in recent years. The various sources of PM, both from primary particulate emissions as well as secondary formation from precursor gases, make this a complex problem to tackle. In order to allow for credible predictions of future concentrations under policy assumptions, a modelling approach is needed that considers all chemical processes and spatial dimensions involved, from long-range transport of pollution to local emissions in street canyons. Here we describe a modelling scheme which has been implemented in the GAINS integrated assessment model to assess compliance with PM10 (PM with aerodynamic diameter 10 across Europe. Furthermore, we analyse the predicted evolution of PM10 concentrations in the European Union until 2030 under different policy scenarios. Significant improvements in ambient PM10 concentrations are expected assuming successful implementation of already agreed legislation; however, these will not be large enough to ensure attainment of PM10 limit values in hot spot locations such as Southern Poland and major European cities. Remaining issues are largely eliminated in a scenario applying the best available emission control technologies to the maximal technically feasible extent.