Study of the Utilization of WRF Model Output Data to Produce Daily Flood Forecast Maps in the North Sumatra Region

Abstract

Flood is a natural disaster that often occurs in Indonesia. Currently, flood events are relatively difficult to predict because floods generally occur suddenly in uncertain periods. Extreme rainfall is a major factor for the occurrence of floods. Considering that floods can be caused by heavy rainfall events within a few hours, it is necessary to produce daily flood forecasts for flood disaster mitigation. This study aims to test the accuracy of utilizing rainfall forecast data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to create daily flood forecast maps. The data used in this study include Global Forecast System (GFS) data, BMKG rainfall measurement data which spread across several points in North Sumatra Province, and flood incident reports from BNPB. Data processing is carried out by Geospatial Information System (GIS) using Quantum-GIS, which includes weighting and scoring the parameters of soil type, slope, land elevation, river density, and land cover to produce Flood Prone Maps, then integrated with rainfall data to produce Daily Flood Forecast Maps. The case studies of flood events in this study are August 28 and November 28, 2022. The results showed that the spatial forecast of flood potential (WRF) has a pattern in accordance with the flood event area. Therefore, the WRF model output rainfall prediction data can be used to create a daily flood forecast map in the North Sumatra region.

Keywords

• daily flood map, weather research and forecasting model, geospatial information system