The effects of policy fluctuations on energy indices in Iran’s agriculture sector

Abstract

Energy is one of the primary factors in production and simultaneously one of the principal commodities. In recent years, the significance of strategic planning in optimizing energy consumption has increased. By examining energy indicators and the impact of various economic policies on them, it is possible to attain a comprehension of past conditions and a picture of the future in different energy sectors. The data spanning from 1947 to 2019 were used through a Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) for analyzing non-linear effects of policy instability on energy indicators in the agricultural sector of Iran. The results indicated an association among the variables, wherein positive fluctuations in agricultural value-added, with a coefficient of 0.13, and conversely negative fluctuations with a coefficient of -0.09, significantly affected long-term energy consumption. It is notable that the second coefficient lacked statistical significance. Additionally, the asymmetrical effects of other variables on energy consumption and productivity in agricultural practices was confirmed.

Keywords

• Policy fluctuations
• Energy productivity
• Energy c