Impact of Arable Land Abandonment on Crop Production Losses in Ukraine During the Armed Conflict

Abstract

The outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict casted an impact on the global food market, which was believed to be attributed to that Ukraine has suffered significant production losses due to cropland abandonment. Nevertheless, recent outbreaks of farmer protests against Ukraine’s grain exports demonstrated that the production losses might not be as severe as previous estimates. By utilizing the adaptive threshold segmentation method to extract abandoned cropland from the Sentinel-2 high-resolution imagery and calibrating the spatial production allocation model’s gridded crop production data from Ukraine’s statistical data, this study explicitly evaluated Ukraine’s crop-specific production losses and the spatial heterogeneity. The results demonstrated that the estimated area of abandoned cropland in Ukraine ranges from 2.34 to 2.40 million hectares, constituting 7.14% to 7.30% of the total cropland. In Ukrainian-controlled zones, this area spans 1.44 to 1.48 million hectares, whereas in Russian-occupied areas, it varies from 0.90 to 0.92 million hectares. Additionally, the total production losses for wheat, maize, barley, and sunflower amount to 1.92, 1.67, 0.70, and 0.99 million tons, respectively, with corresponding loss ratios of 9.10%, 7.48%, 9.54%, and 8.67%. Furthermore, production losses of wheat, barley, and sunflower emerged in both the eastern and southern states adjacent to the conflict frontlines, while maize losses were concentrated in the western states. The findings imply that Ukraine ought to streamline the food transportation channels and maintain stable agricultural activities in regions with high crop production.

Keywords

• Russia-Ukraine conflict
• cropland abandonment
• crop production losses
• high-resolution satellite imagery
• spatially explicit distribution