Identification of Risk Factors for Bus Operation Based on Bayesian Network

Abstract

Public transit has been continuously developing because of advocacy for low-carbon living, and concerns about its safety have gained prominence. The various factors that constitute the bus operating environment are extremely complex. Although existing research on operational security is crucial, previous studies often fail to fully represent this complexity. In this study, a novel method was proposed to identify the risk factors for bus operations based on a Bayesian network. Our research was based on monitoring data from the public transit system. First, the Tabu Search algorithm was applied to identify the optimal structure of the Bayesian network with the Bayesian Information Criterion. Second, the network parameters were calculated using bus monitoring data based on Bayesian Parameter Estimation. Finally, reasoning was conducted through prediction and diagnosis in the network. Additionally, the most probable explanation of bus operation spatial risk was identified. The results indicated that factors such as speed, traffic volume, isolation measures, intersections, bus stops, and lanes had a significant effect on the spatial risk of bus operation. In conclusion, the study findings can help avert dangers and support decision-making for the operation and management of public transit in metropolitan areas to enhance daily public transit safety.

Keywords

• urban public transit
• Bayesian networks
• Tabu search algorithm
• risk identification