Technology interdependency in the United Kingdom's low carbon energy transition

Abstract

The role of different technologies in a future low carbon energy system is determined by numerous factors, many of which are highly uncertain. Their deployment may be a function of dependency on other technologies, or competition, or wider system effects. In this paper, using a UK example, we explore patterns of interdependency between technologies using a hierarchical clustering approach across multiple scenarios. We find that technologies compete in some instances, often on costs, cluster because they co-depend on each other, or emerge under all conditions, as robust options. Crucially, the broader scenario framing around carbon capture and storage (CCS) availability and climate policy stringency strongly influences these interdependencies. Keywords: Energy system models, Scenario clustering, Technology interdependency, Low carbon pathways