Predicting Hidden Danger Quantity in Coal Mines Based on Gray Neural Network

Abstract

The hidden danger is the direct cause of coal mine accidents, and the number of hidden dangers in a certain area not only reflects the current safety situation, but also determines the development trend of safety production in this area to a large extent. By analyzing the formation and development law of the hidden dangers and hidden danger accident-induced mechanism in coal mines, it is concluded that there are some objective laws in the process of occurrence, development, weakening, and even stabilization of hidden dangers in a certain area. The development of the number of hidden dangers for a coal mine generally presents the law of similar normal distribution curve, with a certain degree of partial symmetry. Many years of hidden danger elimination in coal mines will accumulate large-scale hidden danger data. In this paper, by using the average value of hidden danger quantity in consecutive months to weaken the oscillation of hidden danger quantity sequence, and combining with gray model (1,1) and the neural network of extreme learning machine, and employing big data of hidden dangers available, a hidden danger quantity prediction model based on the gray neural network was established, and the experimental analysis and verification carried out. The results show that the model can achieve good prediction effect on the number of hidden dangers in a coal mine, which not only reflects the complex gray system behavior of hidden dangers of a coal mine, but also can predict dynamically. The safety management efficiency and emergency capacity of the coal mine enterprise will be greatly improved.

Keywords

• hidden dangers
• coal mine
• neural networks
• gray model (GM)
• particle swarm optimization (PSO)
• extreme learning machine (ELM)