Predictive analysis of Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera: Flatidae) distribution in South Korea using CLIMEX software

Abstract

Climate change has caused various environmental and ecological problems worldwide, as well as triggered invasions by alien insects that cause damage to the local ecology and agriculture. Metcalfa pruinosa has caused significant damage to agriculture and human life and South Korea is no exception. This species is spreading rapidly in South Korea and causing persistent damage with the change in climate; thus, there is an urgent need for effective monitoring of the potential distribution of this species. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of M. pruinosa in response to climate change. CLIMEX software, specialized software for predicting species distribution, was used to evaluate the future distribution pattern of M. pruinosa by combining biological information and climatic conditions. According to our simulation, the distribution of M. pruinosa has expanded on a national scale; however, its invasion will decrease with the current trend in climate change.

Keywords

• climate change scenario
• CLIMEX
• Metcalfa pruinosa
• potential distribution
• risk assessment