Asymmetric ENSO teleconnections in a symmetric CO2 concentration pathway

Abstract

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest interannual phenomenon occurring in the tropical Pacific, significantly affecting the entire world. The ENSO response to increasing CO _2 concentrations have been extensively studied, but the reverse scenario is still not well understood. Here, we investigate the hysteresis of ENSO teleconnections in a CO _2 removal simulation of an earth system model. During the ramp-up period of CO _2 concentrations, Pacific-North American and Pacific-South American patterns are intensified, with the eastward shift of their poles, which are even further intensified during the ramp-down period. This ENSO teleconnection hysteresis is closely linked to the tropical-origin hysteresis, in which, during the ramp-down periods, the prevalence of the eastern-Pacific type El Niño leads to the hysteresis in the eastern Hemispheric ENSO teleconnections and the enhanced ENSO skewness and the eastward shift of ENSO-induced tropical atmospheric convection do to that in the western Hemispheric ENSO teleconnection. The alterations by the tropical origin are predominantly associated with intensified southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, along with a stronger El Niño-like warming trend. We also demonstrate that the hysteretic change in the mid-latitude mean state over the North Pacific region could lead to hysteresis of the ENSO teleconnection without invoking a tropical origin.

Keywords

• hysteresis of ENSO teleconnections
• CO2 removal scenario
• ITCZ