A “risk-induced” emission mitigation pathway for Kazakhstan

Abstract

The key goal of this research is to propose a method (and a tool) to explore the evolution of the energy sector in Kazakhstan subject to a flexible “user-defined” criterion (e.g. perception of risk of competitiveness loss for the system), so as to trigger the transition towards the emission reduction in an “indirect” manner. The undertaken experiments show that risk reduction policies can be very “synergic” with mitigation ambitions, or, in other words, that the transition towards GHG mitigation can be pushed by other forces (rather than by pure environmental concerns only). The potential beneficiaries of such a type of analysis are groups of stakeholders of various nature: decision makers, academia, civil society, experts interested in proposing/testing alternative formulation of the additional criterion of the analysis (risky configuration of the energy mix) and in assessing the impacts on the energy and climate dynamics of Kazakhstan. The “basic” structure of the model (upon which the updated and more targeted version of the model used in this study is built) is available on a collaborative platform. This study is part of the research material that aims to support the investigation of carbon neutrality pathways in Kazakhstan and it can be seen as a continuation and further development of the “Kazakhstan's Road to Net Zero GHG Emission Vision”.

Keywords

• Kazakhstan
• GHG emissions mitigation
• Energy systems models
• Multi-criteria decision making
• Trade-off analysis
• Modelling of risk